Iran Conflict, Interest Rate Hikes, All-Time Highs: A Review of the First Half of the 2026 Fiscal Year

Anyone who made a forecast for the 2026 stock markets in January will likely be surprised in hindsight. War in the Middle East, inflation at 3.2%, and the first ECB interest rate hike in years – and yet, the first half of the year ended with the best stock market performance in five years. The MSCI World climbed to a new all-time high in June and is up +8.42% since the beginning of the year. This is reason enough to take a look at what lies behind this development – and how the UnitPlus portfolios have performed in this environment.

Why the stock markets performed so well despite the crisis

Strictly speaking, one could have anticipated weaker price performance: since the end of February, the war in Iran has been weighing on energy prices, which pushed eurozone inflation to 3.2% in May – well above the ECB's 2% target. On June 11, the central bank pulled the emergency brake and raised the key interest rate to 2.25%. Rising interest rates make bonds and overnight money more attractive, which typically drains capital from the equity markets.

That prices nevertheless rose so strongly is primarily due to a theme that has been driving the markets for two years now: Artificial Intelligence. Chip manufacturers and data center infrastructure providers continued to report high demand, and a major portion of the price gains was concentrated in a handful of large technology corporations. On the other hand, gold, traditionally a safe haven in uncertain times, lost noticeable ground – a signal of how little fear investors actually had towards the risks. Whether this optimism persists into the second half of the year will depend primarily on whether companies' high earnings expectations are actually met.

A side effect of the ECB's decision: those who park their capital more conservatively also benefit from the higher interest rate level. With CashPlus and ZinsPlus, our two overnight money alternatives, the increase is reflected in the interest rate with minimal delay.

How our portfolios performed relative to the benchmark

An environment like this is a good test of how a portfolio is truly positioned. We have therefore calculated how our investment products performed from January 1 to July 1, 2026, compared to the MSCI World.

Source: UnitPlus, own calculation. Period January 1, 2026–July 1, 2026.

Four of our six portfolios performed above the benchmark. This is most evident with AktienPlus: our actively managed ETF portfolio achieved +14.29%, which is nearly double the yield of the MSCI World. Mount Everest, MultiPlus, and Kilimanjaro also outperformed the index – this is no coincidence, but rather the result of a stronger exposure to precisely those sectors that defined this half-year.

At the lower end of the table are Zugspitze and Mont Blanc, the two most defensive portfolios in our mountain series. As planned, they achieved lower returns, but in return experienced significantly less volatility. This is precisely the purpose of a risk-graded product line: not every portfolio needs to beat the benchmark – what matters is that the volatility matches your own investment horizon.

What next?

Six months say very little about how a portfolio will perform over several years – but they demonstrate that broad diversification and an active approach can pay off, especially in volatile market phases. In the UnitPlus app, you can see how your own portfolio is performing at any time and adjust your risk profile if your objectives change.