The global economy just can’t seem to catch a break. With Donald Trump back in the headlines—and his well-known protectionist stance—the debate around tariffs, trade barriers, and geopolitical uncertainty has also returned. For investors, the question is more urgent than ever: How can I invest my money wisely and shield it from crises?
Table of Contents
Eurozone: Fiscal Impulse Turns Positive – Thanks to Germany and Defense Spending
In times of growing geopolitical tensions, Europe is responding—albeit hesitantly. The so-called fiscal impulse, meaning the impact of government budgets on economic growth, is slowly turning positive after years of restrictive policy. Germany will play a central role in 2025 and 2026—primarily through increased defense spending and state-driven investments.
Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
This is, in principle, a positive signal—it shows that governments are trying to counteract economic headwinds. However, this impulse alone is unlikely to fully offset potential external shocks—such as new tariffs and trade conflicts, which are once again looming. Those who rely solely on Europe for their investments remain highly dependent on the political decisions of individual countries.
Trump’s Policies and Their Impact on Europe
Should new trade conflicts arise—which is not unlikely with Trump—it would hit open economies like the Eurozone particularly hard. A model calculation shows how various effects (e.g., uncertainty, lower demand, tighter financial conditions) could directly impact GDP.
Source: European Commission, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Especially the “downside case” is striking: a prolonged decline of around 1% over several years, driven by uncertainty and trade barriers.
Looking Closer: The Quarterly Perspective
A quarterly view makes things even more tangible—it shows how sharply tariffs can affect short-term growth. Here it becomes clear: 2025 is expected to be particularly turbulent before the situation—perhaps—stabilizes in 2026.
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
What’s clear is this: Uncertainty impacts not only companies, but also consumers and financial markets—leading to reduced investment and restrained spending almost immediately.
What Does This Mean for My Money?
In such an environment, the danger of one-sided investments becomes even more obvious. Those who focus only on Europe or only on the U.S. market are fully exposed to every political gust of wind. That’s why our Berg Series and actively managed ETF portfolio, “Aktien Plus,” are designed precisely with this in mind. Our prebuilt portfolios consist of seven broadly diversified ETFs that invest globally—across countries, sectors, and currencies. This allows us to intentionally build buffers against regional crises.
Why Our Clients Benefit Over the Long Term:
Global diversification lowers investment risk. If one market falters, other regions can offset losses and speed up recovery. At the same time, exposure to fast-growing emerging economies such as India and Brazil enhances long-term return potential.
Conclusion
Markets driven by politics may be short-lived—but poor diversification can have long-term consequences. Especially in times of rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty, a global investment strategy is non-negotiable. With the Berg Series, we offer our clients exactly that: a robust, long-term portfolio that can weather even turbulent times. Now is the right time to make your money crisis-proof.